(For English, please see below)

Šta znamo o organizovanom kriminalu (OK) u Bosni i Hercegovini (BiH)? Da li su se pojavni oblici OK u BiH mijenjali u zadnjih 10 godina? Šta nas očekuje u budućnosti kada je u pitanju OK u BiH? Odgovore na ova pitanja bi trebao dati novi projekat Centra za sigurnosne studije (CSS) pod nazivom „Procjena budućih trendova organiziranog kriminaliteta u BiH – OCASSESS BiH“.

OK godinama unazad ozbiljno ugrožava pravni poredak i podriva demokratske institucije kako BiH tako i drugih zemalja Evrope i svijeta. Svakodnevna događanja i analize OK dovode nas u situaciju da postanemo svjesni prisustva snage OK na teritoriji BiH. U kreiranju javnih politika za borbu protiv OK, institucije vlasti su se oslanjale na vlastite procjene te međunarodne obaveze i standarde koje su preuzeli potpisivanjem i ratifikacijom međunarodnih konvencija i dokumenata koji tretiraju borbu protiv OK. Uprkos ovim naporima i usvojenim strategijama, izvještaj Evropske komisije ukazuje na postojanje sistemskih nedostataka kada je u pitanju borba protiv OK u BiH. Jedan od tih nedostataka je i neusklađenost krivičnog zakonodavstva, koje otežava koordinaciju i sprovođenje zakona na svim nivoima vlasti. Nadalje, slaba institucionalna koordinacija dodatno otežava zajedničke napore različitih agencija, što rezultira nedovoljnom efikasnošću u borbi protiv OK. S druge strane, aplikacije za razmjenu poruka, kao što je Sky ECC, postale su riznica informacija o kriminalnim grupama i njihovim saradnicima. Dekriptovane poruke iz SKY aplikacije pokazale su umiješanost političara, tužioca i policajaca u razna krivična dela.

Činjenica da su oblici OK mnogobrojni i raznovrsni te se lako prilagođavaju novim savremenim društvenim odnosima, usmjerio je CSS u nastojanju da pruži doprinos u reduciranju ovih pojava. To je bitno za proces integracije BiH u EU, obzirom da je cilj 3 strategije EU-a za sigurnosnu uniju i zaštita Evropljana od terorizma i OK.

Glavni cilj OCASSESS BiH je unapređenje spremnosti društva u borbi protiv OK primjenom inovativnih metoda predviđanja kretanja i razvoja društvenih pojava. Specifični ciljevi projekta su podrška institucijama vlasti, civilnom društvu, akademskoj zajednici, medijima i ekspertima u odgovoru na OK u BiH te jačanje istraživačkih kapaciteta civilnog društva.

Kao što je i naglašeno glavnim ciljem, projekat OCASSESS BiH ima i svoju specifičnost. Ona se odnosi na predstavljanje i uvođenje analitičke metode „horizont skeniranja“. Koristeći ovu metodu, različiti društveni akteri, u različitim poljima djelovanja, mogu uočiti trendove određene pojave u ranoj fazi nastajanja, pomažući im da definišu pravce djelovanja u budućnosti. Pomoću ove analitičke metode, CSS će, uz profesionalnu podršku predstavnika sigurnosnog sektora, sačiniti procjenu budućih trendova OK u BiH. Ujedno, kroz aktivnosti izgradnje kapaciteta, pripadnici sigurnosnog sektora u BiH će biti obučeni o primjeni ove metode te potencijalnim mogućnostima uključivanja u operativni rad.

OCASSESS BiH se finansira kroz MATRA program Kraljevine Nizozemske. Projekat je započeo u maju 2024. godine, a predviđeno vrijeme trajanja je 24 mjeseca.

Ukoliko želite više informacija o našem projektu, ljubazno Vas molimo da nas kontaktirate putem e-maila: info@css.ba ; telefona: +387(0)33262456, a tok njegove implementacije možete pratiti putem web stranice: www.css.ba i upotrebom heštegova #CSSBiH #OCASSESSBiH na društvenim medijima.

Ovaj projekat finansira Vlada Kraljevine Nizozemske kroz MATRA program. Sadržaj je odgovornost Centra za sigurnosne studije i ne odražava nužno stavove Ministarstva vanjskih poslova Kraljevine Nizozemske.

Project OCASSESS BiH: Can we predict organized crime in the future?

What do we know about organized crime (OC) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)? Have the manifestations of OC in BiH changed in the last 10 years? What can we expect in the future regarding OC in BiH? Answers to these questions should be provided by the new project of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) titled “Assessment of Future Trends in Organized Crime in BiH – OCASSESS BiH”.

For years, OC has seriously threatened the legal order and undermined democratic institutions both in BiH and in other countries in Europe and the world. Daily events and analyses of OC bring us to the realization of the presence of OC forces in the territory of BiH. In crafting public policies to combat OC, government institutions have relied on their own assessments as well as international obligations and standards they have undertaken by signing and ratifying international conventions and documents addressing the fight against OC. Despite these efforts and adopted strategies, the European Commission’s report points to systemic shortcomings in the fight against OC in BiH. One of these shortcomings is the lack of alignment in criminal legislation, which hinders coordination and law enforcement at all levels of government. Furthermore, weak institutional coordination further complicates the joint efforts of various agencies, resulting in insufficient effectiveness in combating OC. On the other hand, messaging applications such as Sky ECC have become repositories of information about criminal groups and their associates. Decrypted messages from the SKY application have revealed the involvement of politicians, prosecutors, and police officers in various criminal activities.

The fact that forms of OC are numerous and diverse and easily adapt to new contemporary social relations has directed CSS in its efforts to contribute to reducing these phenomena. This is essential for the process of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s integration into the EU, given that one of the EU’s security union strategies is aimed at protecting Europeans from terrorism and OC.

The main goal of OCASSESS BiH is to enhance society’s readiness to combat OC by applying innovative methods to predict the trends and development of social phenomena. The specific objectives of the project are to support government institutions, civil society, the academic community, media, and experts in responding to OC in BiH and to strengthen the research capacities of civil society.

As emphasized by the main goal, the OCASSESS BiH project also has its specificity. It relates to the introduction of the analytical method of “horizon scanning”. Using this method, different social actors, in various fields of action, can identify trends of a particular phenomenon in its early stages, helping them define courses of action in the future. Through this analytical method, CSS, with the professional support of representatives from the security sector, will make an assessment of future trends in OC in BiH. Additionally, through capacity-building activities, members of the security sector in BiH will be trained in the application of this method and potential opportunities for involvement in operational work.

OCASSESS BiH is funded through the MATRA program of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The project started in May 2024, with a planned duration of 24 months.

If you would like more information about our project, please kindly contact us via email: info@css.ba; phone: +387(0)33262456, and you can follow its implementation through the website: www.css.ba and by using the hashtags #CSSBiH #OCASESSBiH on social media.

This project is financed by the Government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands through the MATRA program. The content is the responsibility of the Centre for Security Studies and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.